比特币为何暴跌?我们可能需要重新认识比特币的避险属性_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

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自从 2008 年中本聪创建比特币以来,比特币点对点,无监管等特性让大家认为这是和传统资产完全背道而驰的资产。虽然到目前为止我们认为比特币没有功用的价值支撑,但是随着比特币逐渐为社会所知,币的分布越来越分散,并且在生产和能源消耗角度上有着一定的成本等原因,共同作用比特币的价格逐渐走高。

比特币为何暴跌?我们可能需要重新认识比特币的避险属性_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

在这十一年的过程中,比特币的持有者给比特币设定了诸多的标签,比如说支付、暗网交易、数字黄金等。但可惜的是,随着区块链技术的发展,支付领域出现了瑞波,将要出现 Libra 等应用区块链技术的数字货币。而莱特币和诸多隐私币比如说门罗、ZCASH 等也替代比特币成为了暗网中的主流支付货币。

随着 2019 和 2020 上半年中数次地缘政治危机中的良好表现,推崇比特币的避险属性,将比特币称为“数字黄金”的论断也越来越多。但是可惜的是,在 2020 年新冠病毒引起的全球资产市场黑天鹅事件中,比特币并没有像是黄金走出了预想中向上的表现。而是在衍生的原油危机引爆后迅速从9000 美元附近跌至最低 3800 美元。是比特币避险的神话被打破了吗?还是这个故事就跟支付、暗网交易的故事类似,只是故事而已。接下来我们将从多点分析,探究比特币的避险属性。

 

流动性枯竭

 

众所周知,所有能在市场上被交易者选为交易标的的产品,其中的核心要点是必须具有很强的流动性。反之可能出现建仓或者平掉头寸的时候付出过多的冲击成本的问题,更有可能出现极端情况下流动性不足被其他用户抢跑时的闷杀情况。可惜的是比特币目前看来流动性并不符合交易的标准。虽然在比特币市场内,每日的成交额接近 500 亿美金( Coinmarketcap 数据,未考虑交易所刷量情况),但是观察传统金融市场是否购买比特币的指标,我们可以看到 CME 比特币期货持仓量在今年内是持续下跌的,这也表示通过合规的期货交易所使用比特币期货作为对冲手段的机构交易者并不多。

另外 Coinbase 的 USD 相对于 USDT 交易对是持续折价的,这也就意味着在 Coinbase 的合规用户在净出售比特币而非购买。反观 2019 年初的比特币牛市,核心就是 Coinbase 持续溢价,也就是说巨鲸和机构投资者都在进场。比特币与传统市场交互中的流动性枯竭侧面导致了避险资金在遇到危机时是不会首先考虑比特币的,那么自然讨论比特币的避险属性的基础是不存在的。

 

相对价格过高

 

这一轮比特币的走势很有趣,起初是因为年初在美国伊朗战争危机的驱动下,比特币从 7000 美金附近迅速攀升到 9000 美金附近,炒作的根基除了地缘政治危机如期展开(超预期的部分将会在下一部分中概述),更大的原因是场内炒作“减产”的故事。理论上来说减产会导致供给需求不平衡,从而价格上涨。但可惜的是在币圈中“减产”只是炒作的噱头而已。

我们假设将以以太坊为首的山寨币和比特币作为比较,2019 年年初的牛市很明显是比特币的涨幅大过山寨币,这种现象可以理解为比特币因为外来资金的涌入先行启动,而山寨币随后跟上,本质上是外因激发内因。但今年年初的这一波上涨完全相反,是 BSV、BCH、ETC、ETH 等山寨币率先启动,比特币慢慢悠悠的跟上,涨幅也完全不如翻倍乃至三倍的这些币种。后续市场的热点也是转移到 XTZ、LINK 这种低估的价值币,而不是将要“减产“的比特币。

这说明这轮行情是场内自嗨,市场角度上是内因引发外因,并没有新资金的流入。

对于场外想要入场的资金来说,9000 美元的高位相对 6800 美元附近的低点大概是 1.4 倍左右,继续入场风险收益比不恰当,就更不用说埋伏所谓的避险需求了。对于场内的庄家和大鳄来说,这轮行情中夹杂着大量的杠杆,以至于期货持仓持续处在高位。继续向上推动涨幅一方面期货持仓获利平仓,拉升需要的资金压力过大,另一方面做多情绪强烈,多空比一度达到 3:1 ,多头资金费率年化超过 100% 。此时很明显向下的赔率比向上更高。那么显而易见接下来的走势就是向下突破了。

对于他们来说,资金涌入带来的避险需求是不确定的命题,但是砸盘暴跌导致收割期货仓位是确定性命题。在确定和不确定之间,相信每个理性经济人都会做出选择。

 

预期与超预期

 

资产的涨跌在我们看来就是两个核心,一个是博弈预期与预期兑现,另一个是赔率。这两点很好理解,假设美国和伊朗目前关系很僵硬,可能会触发局部战争,投资人会对伊朗和美国打仗这件事根据合适的赔率下注。接下来的情况可能出现三种,没有开战、开战、开战但是烈度比想象中大很多,比如说川普下令发射导弹炸死了革命卫队的首领。其一和其二情况出现也就意味着投资人博弈的预期兑现了,根据所下筹码的赔率获得应有的回报。但是如果第三种情况出现,也就意味着出现了超预期事件,这种超预期情况一旦出现,将会有更多追求确定性的投资人入场,之前下注完毕的投资人将会收到比预期赔率更高的收益或者损失,这就是超预期事件。

而黑天鹅事件可以广义的理解为超预期事件,炸死了革命卫队的首领导致比特币暴跌自然是,新冠病毒的全面爆发自然也是。但这两者之间烈度完全不同,美伊战争是持续已久的事情,美国实施武力手段也是部分人的预期之内,那么资金是有理由进入比特币市场去博弈真正开战时候比特币的避险需求的,并且在那个时间点比特币的价格很低,那么博弈的赔率是足够的,所以出现超预期情况比特币随之拉升,拉升后资金是否涌入也就不重要了。

但是新冠病毒不一样,在中国国内大肆传播之后,只有日韩等少数几个国家有少量感染情况出现,正当所有人认为病毒已经被流行病学控制住的时候,病毒在欧洲、伊朗、美国等地区爆发。这是完全的超预期事件,类比伊朗地缘政治危机就是炸死了革命卫队的首领,伊朗一不做二不休发射导弹轰击美国国土,甚至引发了第三次世界大战。这种超预期事件对于任何投资者都是未知的,这种对于未知的博弈是最为恐怖的。

那么资产的第一反应是涌入美债、涌入日元,保证自身的安全前提下再去博弈避险资产。并且就算博弈也会选择自己熟悉的品种,而不是陌生的、流动性不好的比特币。所以在烈度很高的超预期事件发生时,我们不能指望比特币会出现如同黄金一样的即时连锁反应,这是因为从资本方的交易操作、交易经验等维度来看,首先选择的一定是熟悉的、被广为认可的避险品种,这也是人的本能。

 

也许是风险资产

 

说了这么多,也算提出了比特币不是避险资产这件事的几个原因。当然除了这些原因之外还有很多老生常谈的原因就不一一赘述。既然不是避险资产,那么比特币属于什么类型的资产呢,个人认为是风险资产。这里提出几点看法。

首先第一点,比特币其实在去年和今年与美股有某种滞后的联动性,虽然暂时没有统计意义上的证明,但这是我们根据图表、事件驱动等观察得出的。

第二点,比特币受制于市场内的资金,也就是享受央行放水带来的滋润,这取决于两部分,其一是在市场流动性好的时候,资金会偏向于配置一些高风险高收益的资产,比如说多个大学基金会配置了一定数量的加密货币作为另类资产配置,很多高净值的科技公司高层也持有一定数量的比特币等。这是因为放水意味着通货膨胀,但当实体经济没那么好的情况下,资产价格的涨幅无法跑赢通胀,市场和专业投资者就会寻找高风险高收益的产品,比如说债券等等,比特币作为过去十年中涨幅最多的资产,自然也收归于这个范畴。第二部分是比特币的炒作属性,比特币总共只有 2100 万枚,相对于源源不绝的法定货币、基本面不透明的上市公司、产量目前看不到上限的大宗商品,比特币总量恒定,产出恒定的特性简直太适合炒作了。并且无论是去中心化,还是避险等等逻辑都给了投机者一个绝好的故事去传销下一笔入场的资金。在比特币拥有如此好的炒作属性时,在市场流动性好的时候会有极多抱着暴富梦的用户涌入。放水、专业投资者、散户的共振,也就催生了 2017 年底的大牛市。

比特币目前还是一个年轻的资产,10 年不止相对于大宗商品、国家主权信用货币很短,也不如美股的百年上市公司,三十年科技企业。也许以现在的事件驱动和涨跌幅度去界定他在长时间纬度内的资产属性是不恰当的,这篇文章希望帮助比特币的投资者们更清楚的了解自己投资的资产到底是什么,也希望投资者能理性看待避险这个概念。而在长期的时间区间内,这些小打小闹只是开胃菜,比特币的未来很长,让我们拭目以待。

免责声明:本文转载自互联网,经授权后发布,版权归原作者所有,转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人,不代表Libra资讯立场。若内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。

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