据Bitcoinist 3月6日报道，Adaptive Capital 的合伙人兼链上分析专家Willy Woo表示，根据他的模型，比特币的合理预测价格将达到13.5万美元。然而，如果比特币的价格出现重大趋势逆转，比如跌至1000美元的话，他也能测试出谁是“能够持续运营、最后留下来的硬核比特币矿工”。
（图片来源：pixabay）
测试最后留下来的硬核比特币矿工
在最新一期的“The Keiser Report”节目中，比特币的信仰者和节目主持人Max Keiser迎来了新嘉宾Willy Woo。除了对币价进行极为乐观的预测之外，Willy Woo还对我们可能遇到的最坏情况给出了看法。Willy Woo提醒他的粉丝们，要把对币价的预测当作是“猜测”，而不是确定性的事件。
我擅长的领域是进行链上分析，比如预测中期价格的走势。
尽管每个人都想希望预测的币价能成为现实，但我们最好还是把它只当作一种猜测。之前能预测成功的模型可能不会再次奏效。
– Willy Woo 2020年3月5日
他说，如果比特币的价格跌至每币1000美元，“我们将开始测试最后一个能够继续运营的最硬核矿工。”他还表示，到那时，比特币的网络将非常脆弱，很容易受到攻击。
如果币价跌到惨不忍睹，比特币网络只剩下为数不多的矿工，当比特币没有足够的哈希速率来支持，那么一个国家或者机构想要攻击它就会变得非常便宜。当币价过低时，比特币是抵抗不住一个强大对手的攻击的。
不过，Willy Woo还是大概率看涨比特币
除了谈到这种无法想象的悲观前景外，永恒牛市的宣传者Keiser和分析专家Willy Woo认为，比特币将会胜出。Willy Woo解释说明了他如何利用账本上的资本流动来判断市场走向的。
他还表示，通过链上分析，他可以观察到矿工们是否在卖币、市场上的资金移动以及其他指标，从而了解币价走势。Keiser表示Willy Woo已经做出了许多准确的判断。
事实上，Willy Woo的推文非常乐观的表示，他相信比特币的调整期已经结束，现在已经是牛市了。
这次的上涨是真正的突破。基本面分析出活跃的投资活动支撑着这次1万美元的突破。
– Willy Woo 2020年2月9日
那么，Willy Woo怎么看比特币在未来6个月、9个月到一年的价格走势呢？他对Keiser表示，他不知道价格到底能到多少，但他可以判断方向。他说：
我们可以用很多方法来预测价格顶部，比如，你可以用35乘以比特币在积累阶段的平均价格来预测最高点的币价，在比特币10年的历史上，每次顶部价格都是如此。
当Keiser要求Willy Woo对顶部币价做出预测，后者表示：
要记住，牛市可能会持续大约四年的时间，最好的猜测是币价会在10万美元以上。我认为合理的预测是达到13.5万美元。
比特币的数字稀缺性决定了它“比黄金要更完美”
此外，两人还讨论了即将到来的比特币减半，这将减少一半的挖矿奖励。Willy Woo说：
这次减半很重要，比特币的通胀率将低于黄金的通胀率。比特币将体现更完美的数字稀缺性。黄金实际上是不具备稀缺性的，我们可以多发射几枚火箭，在小行星上进行开采就会得到大量黄金。从数学博弈论的角度来看，比特币有绝对的稀缺性。有人会想办法开采更多的黄金，到那时候黄金的价格就会暴跌。
Keiser问道，随着人们开始用比特币进行消费，我们是否会在未来看到比特币从一种价值储存手段转变为一种交换媒介呢？Willy Woo回答：
如果我可以用一枚比特币买一栋房子，那我一定会买。
Willy Woo相信一币一别墅的愿望一定会实现。不过，他重申这一愿景在短期内不会实现。而在实现之前，比特币的市值需要变得足够大。
目前，比特币的市值还不到1万亿的六分之一，流通中的法币总价值是90万亿美元，而房地产更是达到了220万亿美元。
Keiser补充说，黄金的总市值是7~8万亿美元，一旦比特币的市值超越了黄金，每枚比特币的价格将处在的40万美元的价格区间。Willy Woo说：
为了达到这一目标，我认为我们需要等7到10年的时间。
Willy Woo重申，对任何投机性资产进行准确的价格预测都是不可能的，他的分析不应被视为投资建议。
比特币的价格可能会飙升至13.5万美元，但也有可能跌至1000美元。如果你想买比特币的话，还是要自己做出判断才行。
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