QKL123行情分析 | 比特币是什么?风险资产or避险资产(0305)_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

详情页1

摘要:比特币作为点对点货币系统的通证,兼具风险资产和避险资产的属性:在早期类似公司股份,起到激励社区或项目建设的作用;目前已具有一定的避险属性,但市场波动似股票,且受自身项目生态发展的影响。短时,比特币区间震荡,以太坊呈收敛态势,有变盘的可能。

QKL123行情分析 | 比特币是什么?风险资产or避险资产(0305)_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

今日16时,8BTCCI大盘指数报13396.19点,24小时涨跌为+0.66%,反映大盘略有回升;总成交额9071.23亿元,24小时变化-23.38%,市场活跃度明显下降。比特币强弱指数报86.02点,24小时涨跌+0.49%,比特币在整个市场的相对表现有所变强;Alternative情绪指数为41(前值40),市场情绪表现为恐惧;ChaiNext USDT场外折溢价指数报101.29,24小时涨跌为-0.17%,场外资金流入强度略有减弱。

分析师观点:

QKL123行情分析 | 比特币是什么?风险资产or避险资产(0305)_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

 

避险资产和风险资产的定义是相对的。通常,将市场价格相对波动不大的一类资产称为避险资产,如黄金、美元、日元以及一些主要经济体的国债。而股票和金融衍生品通常会有较大的价格波动,通常被认为是风险资产。据BuyBitcoinWorldWide显示,以美元价格来计(美元实际购买力在不断下降),目前日元、人民币、黄金和比特币的30天波动率大体分别在0.3%-0.5%、0.2%-0.4%、0.5%-1%、3%-6%之间。也就是,从市场价格表现来看,比特币离避险资产定义还有很大的距离。

比特币,本质上是去中心化货币系统的通证,兼具股票和黄金的一些特性。在比特币发展早期,只是一个少部分人来维护的社区项目,通证起到类似公司股权融资和股权激励的作用:支持项目开发和激励早期参与者。渐渐的,随着比特币的支付场景、交易市场和项目生态的发展,全球越来越多的人接受比特币,比特币演变为一个基于开源代码和全球共识的风险资产。

十年多以来,比特币市值在持续上升,价格波动率也在不断下降。目前,比特币的市值高达11400万亿元,体量已接近黄金市值的2%。虽然比特币依然存在较强的投机属性,但这不妨碍将比特币视为数字黄金,因为比特币和黄金有很多类似的特性,特别是抗通胀的避险属性,或在某些极端情况下作为避险工具。历史上,发生的塞浦路斯危机、印度废除大额钞票、尼日利亚严重通胀等,在这些地区的比特币谷歌趋势变化以及出现的明显价格溢价,都是区域内寻求比特币作为避险工具的体现。

对于世界上的很多人,比特币依然是一个未知事物,主要是因为比特币距离他们的实际生活还很遥远。一方面是因为,与比特币支付或使用相关的基础设施不健全,而且在技术开发上还有很多功能需要完善;另一方面,世界各国对比特币的态度也限制了比特币使用,在目前可选择的支付工具中处于竞争劣势。但是,作为避险工具,比特币可以弥补黄金的一些不足,如更低的通胀率、携带便利性、接近无限的可分割性等。俗话说,“乱世买黄金”,对于普通投资者,至少多了一个选择。

一、现货BTC行情

QKL123行情分析 | 比特币是什么?风险资产or避险资产(0305)_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

BTC从8600美元向上再探8900美元,量能相对萎缩,多空僵持不下。从四小时K线来看,RSI背离超卖区间,鳄鱼指标张口有收窄的趋势,市场逐渐企稳,但短时震荡或将延续。

二、现货ETH行情

QKL123行情分析 | 比特币是什么?风险资产or避险资产(0305)_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

近日,ETH走势呈三角收敛,虽然走法和02月中的高点走法类似,但主力在此位置接回筹码后再次下杀的可能性较小,短时变盘向上的可能性较大。

三、现货LTC行情

QKL123行情分析 | 比特币是什么?风险资产or避险资产(0305)_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

LTC与ETH走法相近,4小时K线的鳄鱼指标闭口待食,多空消耗殆尽,短时有变盘可能。

四、现货EOS行情

QKL123行情分析 | 比特币是什么?风险资产or避险资产(0305)_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

EOS联动BTC,今日或将继续上探,若突破前几日的高点,可作为大盘向上的启动信号。

五、分析师策略

1.长线(1-3年)

BTC长期趋势转好,未来一至两年有望迎来疯牛行情。智能合约平台龙头ETH、山寨币龙头LTC、DPoS龙头EOS可逢低配置。

2.中线(1-3月)

BTC在200日均线徘徊,叠加减半利好预期,还有一定的上升空间,仓位不重者逢低加仓。

3.短线(1-3天)

短时有变盘可能,小仓位低吸高抛,破位止损。

QKL123行情分析 | 比特币是什么?风险资产or避险资产(0305)_LibraNews_服务于区块链创新者

附录:指标释义

1. 8BTCCI大盘指数

8BTCCI大盘指数由现有区块链全球市场中规模大、流动性好的最具代表性Token组成,以综合反映整个区块链Token市场的价格表现。

2.比特币强弱指数

比特币强弱指数(BTCX)反映比特币在整个Token市场兑换情况的指标,进而体现比特币在市场中的竞争强弱,用来衡量比特币对一揽子Token相对价格的变化程度。BTCX指数越大,说明比特币在Token市场表现越强。

3.Alternative情绪指数

恐惧&贪婪指数(Fear & Greed Index)反映市场的情绪变化,0意味着“极度恐惧”,100意味着“极度贪婪”。该指标的成份包括:波动性(25%),交易量(25%),社交媒体(15%),网络问卷(15%),市场占有率(10%),趋势(10%)。

4.USDT场外折溢价指数

ChaiNext USDT场外折溢价指数(USDT OTC INDEX)由 USDT/CNY 场外价格除以离岸人民币汇率再乘以 100 后获得。指数为100时表示USDT平价,指数大于100表示USDT溢价,小于100则表示USDT折价。

5.资金净流入(出)

该指标反映二级市场资金流入流出情况。通过计算全球交易平台(未剔除虚假交易)的流入资金与流出资金之差,正值表示资金净流入,负值则表示资金净流出。其中,上涨时成交额计为流入资金,下跌时成交额计为流出资金。

6.BTC-囤币指标

囤币指标由微博用户ahr999创建,辅助比特币定投用户结合择机策略做出投资决策。该指标由两部分的乘积组成,前者为比特币价格与比特币200日定投成本的比值;后者为比特币价格与比特币拟合价格的比值。一般情况下,当指标低于0.45时更适合增大投资额(抄底),时间区间占比约为21%;当指标位于0.45和1.2之间时适合采取定投策略,时间区间占比约为39%。

注:加密资产属于高风险类资产,本文仅供决策参考,不构成投资建议。

免责声明:本文转载自互联网,经授权后发布,版权归原作者所有,转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人,不代表Libra资讯立场。若内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。

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