比特币这次大牛市与2017年有何区别?看数据怎么说_LBRCHINA_站在未来看现在

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截至2020年11月19日撰写本文时,比特币的价格徘徊在18,000美元左右,这意味着一件事:我们正处于自2017年底著名的牛市以来从未出现过的价格飙升中,当时比特币的价格达到了20,000附近。但是,虽然很想将今天与2017年进行比较,但当前的价格上涨在一些关键方面有所不同。下面,我们概述了推动比特币现在价格上涨的潜在条件,并解释了与2017年情况相比所存在的几个关键不同之处。

为什么现在比特币风起再起?看看数据怎么说

比特币的价格正在上涨,因为在可购买的比特币数量相对较少的时候,对比特币的需求却正在增加。虽然随着开采量的增加,比特币的总供应量每天都在增长,但实际可购买的数量取决于持有人是否愿意出售或交易。根据Chainalysis分析,我们通过跟踪钱包中持有的比特币数量来量化此数量,如果这些钱包发送的比特币少于他们曾经收到的25%,我们将其称为非流动性或投资者持有的比特币,相反钱包中持有的比特币少于发送的比特币数量,那就是我们所说的流动性或交易商持有的比特币。下图显示了自2017年1月以来每个类别中比特币的数量与价格的关系如何变化,从而捕捉了当前价格上涨和2017年价格上涨的市场动态。

比特币这次大牛市与2017年有何区别?看数据怎么说_LBRCHINA_站在未来看现在

目前,流动性比特币的数量与2017年牛市期间的数量相似。但是非流动性钱包中持有的数量要高得多,目前占1,480万比特币开采量(未分类为丢失的)的77%,这意味着它已经五年或更长的时间没有从当前地址移走。随着需求的增加,买家可以轻松获得的储备只有340万个比特币。需求不断增加,交易所的流入量和交易所的交易强度证明了这一点。交易强度指标衡量了离开交易所平台之前每个存入该交易所的现货比特币的交易次数,并且可以很好地代表特定交易所上的比特币需求。目前该指标比180天平均值高出38%。

当前的比特币上涨与2017年有何不同?

关键区别在于谁购买比特币以及为什么购买。 2017年,大多数需求来自个人,散户投资者,他们用自己的个人资金购买,其中许多人在加密货币方面拥有不同程度的经验和知识。正如此前报道的那样,2020年是机构资金开始流入比特币的一年。包括像对冲基金经理保罗·杜德·琼斯这样的知名投资者,他们将购买比特币与早期投资苹果或谷歌进行对比,还有像Square这样的公司,其向比特币投资了5000万美元或总资产的1%,等等,主流公司和金融机构都正在转向比特币。

机构转向加密货币似乎是由对冲宏观经济不确定性的意愿驱动的,当然,今年不确定性并没有减少。琼斯本人说得很好,他说:“早在三月和四月,鉴于美联储实行的货币政策,他们正在采取的令人难以置信的量化宽松政策以及其他中央银行正在采取的措施,这一点变得非常明显。这是史无前例的……人们不得不开始思考如何防御通胀。”

数据也证明了这种机构投资的故事。一方面,我们看到2020年从交易所发送的高价值转账有所增加。

比特币这次大牛市与2017年有何区别?看数据怎么说_LBRCHINA_站在未来看现在

交易所在2020年发送了价值100万美元或以上的转账的次数增长了19%,而比特币的价格与2017年相比已超过10,000美元。这表明进行这些转账的个人有更多的钱可以花,正如我们预期的那样,更大的投资者正在参与进来。

与2017年(更多是亚洲的交易活动带动市场增长)相比,在这一激增期间,我们还看到大量资金流入来自于主要服务于北美的交易所。

比特币这次大牛市与2017年有何区别?看数据怎么说_LBRCHINA_站在未来看现在

在2017年牛市的早期,北美交易所净损失了比特币,随着价格开始达到峰值,北美交易所成为了净接收者。 但这一次,北美交易所一直是绿色的,流入量上升至比过去几个月2017年运行时更高的水平。 这是我们希望看到的,因为推动当前飙升的机构投资者(主要位于北美和欧洲)出于易用性和监管原因,更有可能在这些交易所购买比特币。

同样,与2017年相比,我们也看到交易所的净流入量大大增加,从而允许加密货币到法定货币(C2F)交易。

比特币这次大牛市与2017年有何区别?看数据怎么说_LBRCHINA_站在未来看现在

与2017年相比,C2F交易所在这一激增中发挥了更大的作用,当时主要由交易员进行许多不同类型的加密货币交易的加密到加密(C2C)交易所推动了更多的市场。 加上长期持有的投资者钱包的比特币积累,表明首次购买比特币的买家和希望使用法定货币兑换比特币作为对冲宏观经济趋势的买家,是造成这种需求的主要原因。

当我们将比特币今年的使用与以太坊进行比较时,投资者对比特币作为避险资产的看法变得更加清晰。 此外,比特币变得无流动性的数量比以往任何时候都要多,因为它们进入了钱包,这些钱包发送出去的比特币要比流入的数量少得多,也就是这些比特币被当做长期投资来持有。 另一方面,以太坊正在变得更具流动性,流入了那些不仅交易频繁而且还很新的钱包。

比特币这次大牛市与2017年有何区别?看数据怎么说_LBRCHINA_站在未来看现在

上图显示,自3月中旬以来,在不到一个月的时间就有超过800万ETH流入了流动钱包。这代表着以太坊的使用方式发生了结构性变化,因为以太坊从未如此频繁地转移到交易频繁的新钱包中。随着用户将ETH发送到DeFi协议中,DeFi正在推动这一新用例的发展,在该协议中以太坊可以用来交易各种资产以追求收益。这种用法上的差异在2017年是不存在的——当时,随着价格上涨,投资者在大肆炒作中似乎更加不加选择地购买了不同的加密货币。 2020年比特币和以太坊用例的差异化发展表明市场将更加成熟,鉴于机构投资者的涌入推动了当前比特币价格的飙升,人们可以期待这一市场走向进一步成熟。

这对加密货币来说是个好消息

虽然我们不知道价格是否会继续上涨,但当前的比特币飙升预示着加密货币的美好前景——不仅是因为价格上涨,还因为价格上涨的原因。将此牛市与2017年的牛市进行比较表明,投资者变得更精明和更具战略性,购买比特币来满足特定用例而不是猜测新的热门资产。如果比特币能够继续成为对抗宏观经济趋势的有效对冲工具,我们相信将会有越来越多的机构投资者将资金投入该资产,从而导致更多的主流采用。 ‍

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