比特币单价涨破10万元 这次还沾上“暗网”黑市!后市怎么走?|美元_LBRCHINA_LBRCHINA网

详情页1

  比特币再度站上高位!

  11月6日早间,比特币一度逼近16000美元大关,单价突破10万人民币。截至11月7日发稿,比特币单价为10.42万元,24小时内最高价达到10.51万元,近7天涨幅飙至14.83%。

  非小号官网显示,今年7月以来,比特币总体呈上涨趋势。

比特币单价涨破10万元 这次还沾上“暗网”黑市!后市怎么走?|美元_LBRCHINA_LBRCHINA网图片来源:非小号

  在火币研究院高级分析师康律之看来,比特币持续上涨,从15000美元到接近16000美元整数关口只用了一晚的时间。市场似乎出现了唯恐错过的情绪,不论是通过二级市场直接增持的一般投资者,还是通过灰度合规信托持续增持的机构投资者,都给市场带来了源源不断的买盘,这就是快速上涨背后的直接原因。

  另有分析人士指出,比特币的大涨或与美国收缴了数亿美元比特币有关。

  再度站上高位,比特币单价突破10万元

  昨日(6日),比特币单价突破十万元,再度站上高位。币安中国区块链研究院研究员也认为,此轮快速上涨大概率是由全球机构入场所带来的效应。如美国加密资产管理公司灰度的大规模购买,据公开数据了解,灰度10月29日单周增持了15907个比特币,11月5日增持了7800个比特币;而比特币一周产量才6300个。

  此外,该研究员表示,目前市场上对于比特币的需求已经大大超出了其供给,而这仅仅只是灰度一家机构的购买量。机构入场的信息也给市场带来了信心和预期。

比特币单价涨破10万元 这次还沾上“暗网”黑市!后市怎么走?|美元_LBRCHINA_LBRCHINA网图片来源:摄图网

  此番比特币上涨行情背后的助推因素还有哪些?康律之认为,美国大选或对其有一定的推动作用。他表示,美国大选虽然还没有正式宣布结果。拜登为美国经济复苏选择的是巨额的财政刺激方案,因此市场通胀预期持续增加,美元汇率跌至两年内低点。另外多国疫情二次暴发,市场避险需求有一定程度的上升。

  另一方面,币安中国区块链研究院研究员认为,目前比特币与欧美股市的正相关系数较高,近期欧洲、美国股市都全面上涨,金融市场的复苏也推动了市场对于另类资产的青睐,进而提升比特币的价格。

  美国没收10亿比特币,币圈风波不断

  另据媒体报道,有分析人士指出,比特币的大涨或与美国收缴了大量比特币有关。

  11月5日,美国司法部发布一则声明称,美国于当日提出诉讼,要求没收数千枚总值超10亿美元的比特币。同时,这也是美国司法部迄今为止查获的最大规模的加密货币。

  据声明,本次没收的加密货币与暗网相关。

比特币单价涨破10万元 这次还沾上“暗网”黑市!后市怎么走?|美元_LBRCHINA_LBRCHINA网外媒报道截图

  起诉书显示,该暗网服务于一个庞大的黑市,是当时互联网上最复杂、最广泛的犯罪市场。从2011年到2013年10月被查封期间,数千名毒贩和其他非法商贩利用该渠道,向超过10万名买家分销数百公斤的非法毒品以及其他非法商品和服务,并洗黑钱达数亿美元。

  起诉书还称,该暗网使用了一种所谓的“转杯器”(tumbler)来处理比特币交易,这种方式旨在阻止通过加密货币区块链对个人交易的跟踪。

  起诉书显示,2020年美国国税局识别到54笔先前未被发现的来自这一暗网的比特币交易。根据调查,这些资金大约于2012年或2013年被一名黑客所盗取。2020年11月4日,美国当局从此黑客处查获了价值超过10亿美元的比特币。值得注意的是,调查结果中并未披露这名黑客的身份信息。

  由于美国需要向法官提交此案,因此目前没收的比特币还只是暂时的。尽管如此,这也意味着有一大笔比特币退出了市场。

比特币单价涨破10万元 这次还沾上“暗网”黑市!后市怎么走?|美元_LBRCHINA_LBRCHINA网图片来源:摄图网

  另一方面,币圈最近也风波不断。

  今年10月16日,头部数字货币交易平台OKex发布一则公告称,由于私钥负责人失联,平台决定暂停用户提币。受该消息影响,该交易所平台币应声下跌。

  11月2日晚,有消息称火币平台高管正在接受警方调查。尽管火币官方立刻回应称一切正常,也还是掀起了一股的“提币潮”,在消息传出后的半个小时内转出总计1亿USDT。

  伴随着头部虚拟货币交易所接连卷入调查风波,监管也再次明确了对于虚拟币的监管要求。10月23日,央行发布关于《中华人民共和国中国人民银行法(修订草案征求意见稿)》公开征求意见的通知。《征求意见稿》提及防范虚拟货币风险,明确任何单位和个人禁止制作和发售数字代币。

  11月3日,香港特区政府就加强打击洗钱及恐怖分子资金筹集的立法制度展开公众咨询,其中,香港特区财经事务及库务局建议建立虚拟资产服务提供商发牌制度。

  具体来看,此建议规定任何人士如有意在香港从事虚拟资产交易平台的受规管业务,须向证券及期货事务监察委员会(证监会)申请牌照,并符合适当人选准则,而持牌人须遵守《打击洗钱条例》所订的打击洗钱及恐怖分子资金筹集规定和其他旨在保障投资者的规管要求。

  分析师:市场短期内可能出现分化

  事实上,自从今年三月份全球金融市场大跌后,比特币的整体币价都处于恢复上升阶段。

  币安中国区块链研究院研究员分析,比特币目前处于减半周期,大大提高用户对于后市价格的预期。虽然短期内可能面临回调风险,但比特币整体走势仍处于上升通道中。

  他认为,目前比特币大概率已经进入了牛市阶段且处于早期。大量机构已经逐步入场且持续增大比特币持有份额,本轮涨势大部分散户仍然处于观望以及踏空状态,后市大量用户的涌入将为比特币带来更多的动能。

  而康律之认为,目前来看这确实是比特币开启新一轮减半行情的前兆。纵观比特币历史,每次减半之后比特币都形成对数级别的增长行情。目前来看如果可以稳步突破历史高点,将会开启市场期待已久的减半行情。

  事实上,比特币走势也跟多个因素有关。从消息面上来看,此前纽约州金融服务部向PayPal授予了BTC的许可权的消息,意味着用户可以直接使用PayPal账户购买、持有以及出售加密货币,该消息推助比特币一轮上涨。

  此外,还有宏观经济因素,币安中国区块链研究院研究员举例,美元对于人民币的增值或贬值也影响比特币走势。他还提到,前段时间的美股走强也间接提升了资本市场的风险偏好,从而带动资本以及机构对于BTC作为另类资产的投资,引发BTC的上涨。

  比特币未来行情走势,康律之分析,就目前行情来看,比特币短时已经积累了很多的获利盘,短期内可能会出现一定的分化。他表示,市场短期内很可能会进一步快速冲高,之后随着获利盘的释放出现一定的回调行情,最终在周线级别形成较长的上引线。之后在某一个价格区间内走出新的整理行情,之后再稳步上升。他认为,这样市场比较健康,持续的单边行情出现的概率还是比较小的。

  另外,业内人士提示投资者一定要保持冷静谨慎的态度,切勿盲目跟风投资。

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