央行数字人民币的商业启示:银行与金融科技公司或将重塑|数字货币_LBRCHINA_LBRCHINA网

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  中国人民银行行长易纲今年5月底表示,数字人民币体系(DC/EP,即Digital Currency and Electronic Payment,直译为“数字货币和电子支付”)坚持双层运营、现金(M0)替代、可控匿名的前提下,基本完成了顶层设计、标准制定、功能研发、联调测试等工作。

  数字人民币首先在几个城市进行内部封闭试点测试,以检验理论可靠性、系统稳定性、功能可用性、流程便捷性、场景适用性和风险可控性。随后,8月12日,商务部印发《全面深化服务贸易创新发展试点总体方案》,正式公布在京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区及中西部具备条件的试点地区,开展数字人民币试点。可以预期,数字人民币使用将逐步展开。

  毫无疑问,数字人民币的推出将夯实我国数字经济长远发展的基础设施,提升中国在第四次工业革命(数字化)全球竞赛的竞争力。当然,数字人民币的推出既蕴含诸多商业机遇,也将让部分行业领域面临挑战。

  给消费者带来的变化

  从消费者角度来看,数字人民币可能将在支付(交易及流通媒介)以及未来可能在投资(存储购买力和财富)两方面发挥重要作用。尽管最近几年由于手机端移动支付快速发展,大多数国内消费者已经习惯了无现金交易,但是目前移动支付仍然是基于银行账户的现金,而数字人民币的出现或将提供更多选择。

  首先,未来消费者在接收和支付人民币时,多了“数字人民币”一种无现金选择。随着普及程度提高,用数字人民币投资也可能实现。但是,向消费者推广选择使用数字人民币可能需要一个过程,其“便利性”或“其他利益”尤其重要,这需要央行、商业银行及其他机构进一步谋划。例如,商业银行之间竞争储户存款,如果没有额外利益,没有储户愿意把存款从一家银行转移到另外一家银行。

  其次,要让消费者接受和支付时愿意选择数字人民币,可能需要政府包括央行、财政部以及国有企业等部门提供政策性便利或优惠,以及商业银行让利等。例如,为居民的数字人民币提供跨境使用便利(即一定额度内自由在海内外流通交易和投资,也就是在较小额度内人民币资本项下自由流动),包括高速公路ETC、加油站、水电煤账单、医保卡、退休金账户绑定数字人民币账户,以及政府为居民发放各类补贴甚至于企事业单位发工资等,均可以优先使用数字人民币,既可以防止被克扣,还节省成本提高效率。

  数字人民币是否被用户接受,商业银行或其他机构还要在使用场景、市场营销、市场培育上投入巨大的资源,也就是所谓的商业银行如何利用互联网思维去运营数字货币。虽然数字人民币生态链的形成可能需要一段时间,但长远来看,随着科技进步及数字经济渗透到生活各个领域,消费者最终将选择以数字人民币形式持有一部分或大多数人民币。

  这个进程是否可以像过去几年手机端移动支付迅速发展,目前还很难判断,关键在于消费者和市场包括企业和金融机构是否接受。如果速度较慢,将是一个循序渐进的过程。

  不会过多影响移动支付格局

  不少市场人士担心,央行推出数字人民币,可能影响目前以支付宝和微信支付为主导的移动支付格局。对此,人民银行数字货币研究所所长穆长春表示:“央行数字货币不会对目前的移动支付产生过大的影响,而是会给老百姓带来更丰富的支付工具选择,满足更多的支付需求。”

  国际清算银行发布报告称,中国央行的数字货币除了提供方便在线交易现金的补充外,也可能为目前由支付宝和微信支付共同占有94%的移动支付领域带来多样性选择。因此,数字人民币对移动支付市场可能会带来新变化。

  从本质上来讲,数字人民币是“钱或货币”,而移动支付是“取收钱的方式”。二者的关系或可以比喻为“鱼”和“钩”,或“水”和“瓢”,性质完全不同。但是,对于移动支付这把“瓢”来说,数字人民币和银行账户的纸币是“水”和“冰”,两者没有什么区别,“水”多还是“冰”多影响可能都不大,因为它们随时可以互相转换。

  而且,移动支付业务本身对于平台公司来说,最大的价值在于支付之外的消费者衍生行为,以及其庞大的生态圈所产生的价值,对于消费者来说也是如此。

  无论是支付宝还是微信支付的成功,都离不开其所有者的强大实力和资源,尤其是作为电商场景和社交场景的强大入口,离开庞大的平台或生态圈,很可能独木难支。

  目前移动支付进入“断直连”时代(指第三方支付机构切断之前直连银行的模式,接入网联或银联),数字货币要替换它的意义不大,但是未来可能会重塑整个支付体系,不光是移动支付格局;目前我国大概有8套支付体系,包括大额、小额、农信银、城市商业银行汇票处理等,这些支付体系功能重叠、交叉,未来数字人民币可能有机会把这些支付体系整合,形成统一的支付体系。

  因此,数字人民币的推出短期内对移动支付格局的影响可能不会很明显。但是,中长期来看,“两强独霸”的局面或可能由于政策变化、商业模式被重塑或科技进步面临挑战,能否形成“三足鼎立”或“群雄逐鹿”目前还很难判断。

  对金融科技、商业银行的影响

  数字人民币可能为金融科技类公司带来创新的土壤和重要的基础设施,也可能为商业银行和其他金融机构带来商业机会,尤其在数字化转型方面。

  先看金融科技类公司,数字人民币把钱从根本上进行了数字化,也就是说人民币从发行、流通、存储、投资、跨境流动等所有环节都可以变成“数据”,这为金融科技公司利用大数据、区块链、人工智能、云计算、甚至于物联网来链接和处理这些数据打通了最后一公里。因此,我们预计已经处于全球领先的中国金融科技领域,在数字人民币正式推出之后或将迎来崭新的历史发展机遇。对该行业来说,数字人民币有可能像一颗新生的“太阳”,既带来了光明,又带来了能源。

  再看商业银行等金融机构,首先,很显然,央行不会让数字人民币给商业银行带来新的负担。央行副行长范一飞曾经撰文指出,数字人民币的推出,不会构成对商业银行存款货币的竞争,不会增加商业银行对同业拆借市场的依赖,不会影响商业银行的放贷能力,也就不会导致“金融脱媒”现象。

  其次,对商业银行等金融机构来说,数字人民币把我国货币所有环节都变成“数据”也可能为银行带来革命性的创新。长远来看,商业银行可能脱胎换骨转换成“信贷数据管理公司”,如利用区块链、生物识别及大数据等技术把每位客户的大部分财务资料集中管理。商业银行未来和科技金融公司的边界可能更难分清,或两者完全整合或可成为大趋势。

  对其他行业领域也有着诸多潜在影响。尽管央行表示数字人民币最开始是现金(M0)替代,但从最近几年新兴科技尤其是数字技术、互联网、人工智能等在金融领域的发展和应用来看,长远来看,数字人民币很可能引发“多米诺骨牌效应”,在多个行业或领域掀起变革。

  以人民币国际化和贸易结算为例,随着其他国家央行数字货币逐渐推出,我国货币国际化改革或可以率先利用数字人民币展开实验,或者让“一部分”数字人民币实现全球自由兑换和流通(由于其可追踪性优势,技术层面可行);国际贸易结算方面,因为我国是全球第一个推出数字货币的主要经济体,可以利用先发优势创立全新全球结算体系,或可逐渐摆脱对SWIFT支付系统的长期依赖。

  在企业客户支付市场亦有巨大商机。例如利用数字人民币可编程的特点,在供应链金融等方面大有作为,也可以弥补二代支付体系的不足;在政府端,例如补贴款的发放 (专款专用)、善款等,有巨大应用场景。

  同时亦能提升我国金融效率、优化资源配置。与发达经济体相比,我国金融资源的市场化配置仍需改进。数字人民币的推出,以及未来逐渐普及,一方面将节省纸币包括硬币印刷、流通的成本;另一方面,整个金融体系的结算和交易逐渐过渡到以数字人民币为核心,将极大提升效率。数字人民币的推出可以成为诸多金融改革的新载体,如果能借此推动金融资源的市场化配置,例如个人包括企业家利用数字人民币账户贷款或借钱,由于这类账户绑定了很多个人信息或资产(区块链技术的应用)发生违约或赖账的概率将大幅下降。

  数字经济已经连续多年成为推动我国经济持续健康发展的最大驱动力之一,根据中国信息通信研究院的报告,数字经济的比重已经占到我国GDP的36%,预计到2030年将提高到50%以上,在国际上处于领先水平。我国央行率先推出数字人民币,是中国数字经济飞速发展的产物,也将是这个趋势继续提升的坚实基础和催化剂,一定会对诸多领域及行业包括企业提供崭新的历史机遇。(作者赵广彬,普华永道中国资深经济学家)

  

央行数字人民币的商业启示:银行与金融科技公司或将重塑|数字货币_LBRCHINA_LBRCHINA网
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