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美联储政策声明对比:重申动用所有工具,但经济路径取决于疫情;美元跌创两年新低,机构称跌势难改_巴比特_服务于区块链创新者

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转自:汇通财经

北京时间周四(7月30日)凌晨2:00,美联储决策层宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在0%-0.25%不变。该决定获得了委员们一致通过。会后发表的声明与6月初的声明内容基本一致,重申致力于使用各种工具来支持美国经济,且预计当前持续的新冠病毒疫情将在短期内严重影响经济、就业和通胀,并对中期前景构成相当大风险。

美联储政策声明对比:重申动用所有工具,但经济路径取决于疫情;美元跌创两年新低,机构称跌势难改_巴比特_服务于区块链创新者

7月和6月声明的异同之处

不同点

① 7月新增:经济路径将在极大程度上取决于病毒疫情的发展历程

② 经济状况: 7月:在经历急剧下降之后,最近几个月经济活动和就业有所回升,但仍远低于今年之初时它们的水平 6月:疫情本身以及为保护公众健康而采取的措施,引起经济活动急剧下降和失业人数大幅增加

相同点

①致力于在这个充满挑战的时期使用全部工具来支持美国经济,从而促进其充分就业和物价稳定的目标

②当前持续的公共卫生危机将在近期内严重影响经济活动、就业和通胀,并对中期经济前景构成相当大的风险

③将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在0%至0.25%不变:预计将维持这一目标区间,直到有信心经济已度过近期事件影响,并走上实现充分就业和物价稳定目标的轨道

④需求走软和油价大幅下跌正抑制消费者价格通胀: 在决定今后货币政策立场的调整时机和幅度时,委员会将评估已实现的和预期的经济形势与其充分就业目标及其对称性2%通胀目标的对比情况

⑤ 为支持信贷资金流向居民和企业,在接下来的数月,美联储将至少以当前速度增持美国国债、机构住宅和商业抵押贷款支持证券

⑥ 公开市场操作部门将继续开展大规模的隔夜和定期回购协议操作

⑦ 委员会将密切观测动态发展,并做好适当调整其计划的准备

Toews:美联储没让预期它会“竭尽所能”的市场失望

Toews Corp.首席执行官兼投资组合经理Phil Toews称,“市场之前的运作假设是美联储将竭尽所能支持市场,政策制定者在这个方面没有让人失望。”该公司管理19亿美元资产。

Toews通过电子邮件称:“如果市场在接下来数月走势动荡,美联储支持市场的能力将受到考验。如果市场在美联储购买债券的情况下还是开始下跌,将是巨大的卖出临界点;由于债券收益率很低,股票估值很高,平衡投资组合的预期收益令人沮丧。考虑选择另类、不受限或对冲策略是目前投资者的最佳途径”。

Aware Asset:美联储重申的鸽派情景已经被投资者所消化

Aware Asset Management的投资总监John Kaprich表示,联邦公开市场委员会最新声明只是重申了大多数投资者已经消化的“非常鸽派情景”。

Kaprich在政策声明发布后接受采访时说:“我们一直在寻求美联储确认将继续致力于在当前充满挑战的时刻使用其全部工具来支持美国经济,我们得到的也是如此。我们继续认为,仅仅依靠货币政策还不足以保持经济的稳定。财政刺激在目前的历史高失业率时期对于支持急需的支出至关重要”

渣打:美联储政策声明不足以止住美元抛售

渣打驻纽约的G-10货币研究负责人Steve Englander表示,美联储最新的货币政策声明或许“相对于预期而言显得鹰派”,但这不足以阻止美元抛售。

他说:“美国实际和名义收益率低下,流动性充裕”和“避险需求减少”将继续对美元造成压力;市场之前预期美联储将提供更多的前瞻指引和更多有关量化宽松的信息。

美元触及两年低点,因美联储重申鸽派立场

美联储利率决议后,美元指数一度跌至93.16,为2018年5月以来新低,美联储重申宽松政策,并对经济活动和就业仍远低于年初的水平感到担忧,这令美元承压。 美联储政策声明对比:重申动用所有工具,但经济路径取决于疫情;美元跌创两年新低,机构称跌势难改_巴比特_服务于区块链创新者 (美元指数日线图)

BK ASSET MANAGEMENT董事总经理KATHY LIEN表示,“美联储显然更趋谨慎和鸽派,基本上是在告诉市场,他们不会很快升息,在市场抛售美元的环境下,这是压低美元的另 一个借口。”

与此同时,美国的冠状病毒病例正持续增加,而包括欧洲在内的世界其他地区似乎已经控制住了疫情。据统计,周三美国新冠累计死亡人数超过15万人,高于其他任何国家,占世界总死亡人数的近四分之一。

德国商业银行外汇和大宗商品研究主管Ulrich Leuchtmann表示,“由于欧洲和美国的疫情发展趋势背道而驰,美元的前景仍然疲弱。”

北京时间7:30,美元指数现报93.31。

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