比特币两次减半的见证者们|比特币_LibraNews财经_LibraNews网

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  原标题:比特币两次减半的见证者们 来源:蜂巢财经News

比特币两次减半的见证者们|比特币_LibraNews财经_LibraNews网

  文|蜂巢采编小队

  编辑|文刀

  5月12日,比特币出块奖励完成第三次减半,从12.5BTC降至6.25BTC。OKEx行情显示,减半前市场出现大幅下跌,BTC从8900美元跌到8150美元,跌幅8%,凌晨3:23分完成减半后,BTC价格出现回调,最高上涨到8800美元,截至早晨6点暂报8600美元。

  接下来,比特币将走向何方?又会给身在币圈的每个人带来什么改变?走过上一次减半历史的行业老人儿成为一种参照。他们或见证并守候,或错过又归来,跟着比特币这块引路石进入加密货币世界的深处。

  蜂巢财经采访了4位经历过上次比特币减半的行业人士,他们每个人都记得2016年7月10日这个日子。在币信前身HaoBTC工作的熊越,见证了他们矿池挖出的最后一个有25个BTC奖励的区块;币圈大V “超级比特币”则和朋友圈们像过年一样倒数计时,竞猜谁是减半后的第一个爆块矿池。

  他们经历了同样的四年,一路走来,去处并不尽相同。何一在“减半”之前离开了行业,但她手里一直持有的BTC似乎预示着她还会回来;杨海坡刚刚创立ViaBTC,抓住了行业早期红利,将初创矿池做成全球排头兵;熊越没想到币信后来越做越大,超级君离开了公司但无法完全脱离行业。

  四年已过,比特币不仅给他们打开了财富大门,也改变了他们看待世界的方式。

比特币两次减半的见证者们|比特币_LibraNews财经_LibraNews网

  超级比特币

  ‘比特币是一种生活方式’

  币圈大V上次减半时是币信的前任COO

  更早前是一位美食专栏作家

  2020年这一轮“减半”已经让人无法亢奋,3月那次大跌一下把大家锤“死”了,整个币圈病恹恹的感觉。从社交媒体看的话,推特上还有点亢奋、期待的那个意思,微博、朋友圈就比较down,有点无感,带着点悲观。反正即便5月8号那天涨到1万点,大家也都没什么感觉,好像总担心再跌下去。

  不像2016年那一次减半。

  那是我在币圈工作的第三个年头,当时在币信担任COO。币信可以说是“比特神教”大本营,我们工资都是用比特币发。减半要来了,币信、币科技的朋友们都特别兴奋,明显感觉到比特币圈子来了一批新人,大家憧憬产量减半后会怎么怎么样。

  我记得特别清楚,7月10日减半的那个晚上,真跟看世界杯一样,熬通宵,盯区块变化,10、9、8、7……跟新年一样倒数,竞猜哪个矿池会抢到减半后的第一个块。

  当然了,和这次不一样,今年是突然遭遇了黑天鹅。那一次减半前的半年里,市场都在逐步地回暖,给大家对减半期待的心情做了一个铺垫。

  我记得2015年底,BTC又进入了谷底,从上一年高点900多美元回落到200多美元起步,整个15年都在50%的区间震动,最高也就是450多美元。到2016年5月底的时候,就开始向好。我记得6月1号的时候,涨到了人民币3600多块钱,530多美元了,大家都觉得“哇,真的是要减半了”,态势很好,币价很真实的反应出来。到减半的时候就4500多块了,600多美元。

  其实那时候的亢奋里也有点很复杂情绪的。因为币信也有算力,毕竟比特币减产以后,矿工收入一下子也减半了。作为持币者,心里是怀抱信心的,因为你知道通胀率在下降。我内心里其实嘀咕了一下,认为减半当天应该会跌一下,后来发现涨跌不超过100块钱。就8月震荡了一下,之后开始一直涨。

  现在大家对“减半”不像过去那么热衷,可能也是因为加密货币市场大了,各种币出来了,每个社群都有自己关注的币,分散了对BTC的聚焦点。我相信很多人还是最关注BTC,尽管不像过去那样大讨论了,可我身边的币圈老朋友都在,星空,熊越,大家都还守在这个圈子里。

  虽然我已经不具体在某个公司任职,但我其实没办法完全脱离这个行业,你看,我现在穿的衣服都是行业里各个公司的品牌衫。就像我的微博签名一样,比特币是一种生活方式,至少他是我的生活方式。当然了,这种生活方式会过得比较苦,起起伏伏。后来发现,其实就是当下很热门的一个说法,延迟满足感。

  我相信,下一个四年,比特币和整个加密货币行业一定会越来越好。

比特币两次减半的见证者们|比特币_LibraNews财经_LibraNews网

  何 一

  ‘基于比特币图腾构建一个新世界

  币安联合创始人上一次减半时她在一下科技

  相比四年前那次减半,很多影响BTC价格的市场因素已经变了。有一些朋友觉得“比特币没有那么令人激动人心了”, 其实更大多原因变的是比特币越来越成熟了,越来越没有那么容易操纵控制了,这对行业是好事。

  很多人认为比特币价格和挖矿成本完全匹配,那么比特币减半,币价必然2倍。这个我觉得不完全合理。比特币现在的价值会受多方影响,随着更多的投资者入场,衍生品市场的成熟,全球经济形势的变化,每一个因素都会直接带来币价的大幅波动。

  行业早期比特币价格波动的因素较现在更单一。2016年第二个减半年,整个全球经济局势相对稳定,从金融到科技行业,投融资市场情绪比较积极,因此币价和挖矿价格之间的关系更紧密;当时整个市场规模相对更小一些,价格也更易于被操纵。那时,大家对比特币减半其实是期待与不安并存。尽管我当时不在币圈,还是有对部门的小朋友们说过,“如果有闲钱可以买点比特币”。

  是的,上次减半那会儿,我短暂出圈了,在一下科技忙于千播大战。减半当天我在做什么完全不记得了。那时候,我也只是一个持币者,偶尔和币圈的老朋友聊聊天,说说行情的惨淡,不太关心减半后价格涨不涨得起来,完全佛系持币。

  但其实2014年到2015年我在国内做交易所时,就感觉到行业小众,更丛林法则一些。这几年比特币逐渐进入大众视野,吹捧和踩踏齐飞,经历了一次又一次分叉。价格短期有波动很正常,长期来看,我们仍然处在一个螺旋上升的通道里,处在技术发展曲线的稳定上升区。

  比特币对我来讲是一个图腾。从小到大,没有人教会我钱是什么,所以我先知道安·兰德,后知道比特币,才知道哈耶克,然后你突然发现,原来的知识体系和世界观里有一些一直很模糊的部分被补上了。比特币给我的世界打开了一扇大门,让我找到自己的使命,那就是基于这个图腾去构筑一个新的世界。

  下一个四年,我认为行业会更稳健地向前发展,区块链行业会有更落地而翔实的应用。我一直以“乐观主义”心态看待行业发展,因为这个世界需要一套“信任体系”,建立在当前的经济形势下行以及全球的不确定性环境中。如果要定一个小目标,那应该是币安基于区块链打造出全球顶级的杀手级应用。

  这期间,我们遇到一些满怀热情的人投入区块链行业,当然也会因很多不靠谱的人和事而备受打击,但哪个行业早期不是泥沙俱下呢?

比特币两次减半的见证者们|比特币_LibraNews财经_LibraNews网

  熊 越

  ‘我看见了平民创建公平货币体系的唯一希望’

  币信研究院院长上一次减半时,币信还叫HaoBTC

  我一直坚定比特币会上涨,但理由是更大的愿景,而不是简单的“减半行情”。减半及其代表的供给变化,只是影响价格的一个因素。这次减半后,比特币会变得更加珍贵和难以获得。

  上一轮比特币减半时,币信还叫HaoBTC,我在做运营。当时大家刚从2014年到2015年那个漫长而令人绝望的熊市中走出来,没有太多人奢望所谓的“减半行情”。市场的关注点更多是矿工的收入会减少一半,但那时候挖矿其实很赚钱,奖励减半也还是赚的,无非是回本周期变长了。

  作为比特币信仰者,我那时就买了一些比特币,公司的工资和分红也会以比特币发放。印象很深刻的是,上一次减半前最后一个25个币奖励的区块,是HaoBTC挖出来的。

  那时候,行业很小也很简单,只有挖、存和交易比特币。一转眼,又一个四年过去了。行业变大了,变得更专业和复杂。虽然有了很多乱象,但行业还是茁壮成长,人们可以在全球收发比特币以及兑换法币。只是坚持初心的人越来越少了。

  托比特币的福,公司做得比我想象得大。这些年,我学到了很多知识,关于创业、经营,关于投资、金融,也关于人生。做一个真正的币圈从业者需要学太多东西了。

  对我来说,比特币更重要的意义在于它意味着希望,是平民去创造一种公平和正义的货币体系的唯一希望。时间会证明,比特币会进入更多普通人的生活,成为一种常态。到那时,我希望我依然不忘初心,做好自己。

比特币两次减半的见证者们|比特币_LibraNews财经_LibraNews网

  杨海坡

  ‘我不太看好比特币的未来,稳定币更有希望’

  ViaBTC&CoinEx创始人上次减半时,他刚在币圈创业

  “减半行情”这种说法早就有了。不过,这一次炒作过度了,这也导致市场预期行情在减半之前已经兑现,减半对整个市场供应量的影响越来越小。

  你看供应量,比特币现在已挖出的数量都超过1800万了,总流通非常高。从大周期来看,我们目前都还处在上一个周期的去泡沫阶段,减半对币价的影响不会太大。

  距离上次减半都过去四年了,但我觉得一切都只是循环往复而已,现在有的,四年前都有。只不过那时候比特币还比较早期,一切都很简单,没有ICO,交易平台上可交易的币种也不多。

  这四年里,行业创新的东西并不多,最大的变化是市场规模是过去的十多倍,交易所行业日新月异,数量多,衍生品也多。专业机构、创业者的数量都在增加。上一次减半时,我正好刚开始创业,做ViaBTC矿池。专注了早期的机会红利,很快把矿池做到了全球领先的位置,后面开始探索交易所。

  我从零经验到管理一个中等规模的公司,的确,因为比特币,让我在创业、产品、公司管理上成长了很多。对我个人而言,它给我的直接改变是财富增长,这样说可能有一些俗气。

  那时,我是比特币的信仰者,怀抱着它可以成为世界货币的信心。如今,并没有实现,倒是持有、使用它的人越来越多了,但这也让比特币网络越来越堵,手续费水涨船高。时间走过了四年,比特币拥堵了四年,离它最初的理想越来越远。反而是以USDT为首的稳定币给市场带来了很大的影响力。

  也正是因为稳定币的出现、比特币网络拥堵这些因素,都在降低比特币的实用价值,所以我不是特别看好比特币的未来,反而觉得下一个四年,稳定币还会持续发展。类似于Libra这些锚定法币的数字货币会让区块链、加密货币有更实际的应用场景。

  去中心化交易所也会成为未来的发展方向。我们在CoinEx的去中心化交易所刚起步阶段,就看到了DEX解决一些问题的能力,更加开放,更加自由。这种理念不就是我们当初爱上比特币的原因吗?

  同题问答

  假如穿越回四年前,你会做什么?

  超级比特币:多买点比特币,远离币圈,去曼谷找一个好一点的公寓,写情色小说

  杨海坡:肯定还是买比特币。时间不可倒流,虽然有一些遗憾,但不会总去想“如果可以重来,我要做什么”

  熊越:如果可以回到四年前,我还是希望多囤一点币吧

  何一:如果回到四年前,我可能什么都不会做,一切都是最好的安排

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